Long-Term Unemployment Trends

Right now, we’re at 10% unemployment. While we think of this as bad right now, it may very well be the “passably good” of ten years from now, or even considered great.

I recently read an article that showed how, without a double-dip recession and things working along normally enough after a recovery, we’d be at around just above 8% unemployment in 2020. That’s with Baby Boomers retiring on schedule and normal annual growth in the workforce each year. Should the Boomer stick it out longer, then unemployment will be higher. Same goes for a less-than-average recovery or a dreaded double-dip.

A double-dip recession, which is a very real possibility if the government allows the 2001 tax cuts to expire in 2011, would see unemployment hit 13% and then wend its way down to around 9-10%. This isn’t some sort of crazy conspiracy theory. This is looking at the numbers and assuming normal stuff happens.

The upshot of this is that what we once considered horrendous will soon become normal to us.

Don’t quit your day job.

2 thoughts on “Long-Term Unemployment Trends

  1. Matthew Wong

    Wow. there is a lot of unemployment now as it is…. so how do we decrease unemployment??
    1. fiscal policies and monetary policies.
    2. bring back foreign companies (lower taxes)
    3. make more jobs?
    4. stop….unnecessary government jobs? their jobs take out from tax money.
    5. keep bush’s tax cuts permanant.

    just suggestions.

    Question: how do we measure recession? is it just based on the unemployment?debt?gdp?past?what is it?

  2. Nikkiah Guerra

    Well…like all good fashion stories, unemployment is HOT right now and I believe that in the near future this ticking time bomb will be out like spandax and t-shirts. (I mean really..do you have to walk around showing what God gave you to the WORLD?) Unemployment has got to increase before it can decrease. It has to get worse before it can get better.

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