Category Archives: Economics

The Carry Trade

The carry trade is pretty straightforward: it’s a bet that a currency will do certain things in the future and that, given that given-ness, one can use a position on that currency as a hedge, or reduction of risk, on other investments.

In this crisis, many people looked to the way the US was spending money to get out of trouble and assumed that the dollar would stay weak relative to the euro. There is a massive carry trade in the dollar, with the expectation that it stays weak.

With the recent turmoil over Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Ireland, it looks like the euro may weaken and the dollar strengthen. That will mess up everyone that expected the dollar to stay weak. When it strengthens, the people that had bet on a weak dollar will lose quite a bit of money.

Questions for the Tea Party

All, right, deficits are bad. No argument about that from me. Taxes can damage the economy. Again, I agree wholeheartedly. Now, Tea Party, tell me how you’re going to rein in deficits and cut taxes without bringing on a catastrophe to make the events of the 1930s seem like the “Not All That Bad Depression.”

The Tea Party is too little, too late. Yes, we fear deficits, but what politician is going to vote to dismantle entitlement programs? How are we going to get rid of entrenched politicians when the interest groups backing them have put so much money into discrediting their opponents? And how do we know if the replacements the Tea Party puts forward are mentally sound?

In War, Politics, and Insanity, C.S. Bluemel put forward the idea that many of the world’s politicians, particularly the populist ones, are certifiably insane. They grew up with hard lives and became rebellious mavericks – psychotic mavericks. The book was written in 1949, so the author was thinking of Hitler, Mussolini, and Stalin, not Palin. The comparison still applies. The danger of populism is that it attracts leaders just like the common man that believe in themselves to the point of megalomania. My final question for the Tea Party is this: beyond your economic solution, how will you keep your movement from producing an American dictator?

Debt Limit Now 100% of GDP

The image to the right shows the national debt in 2004, when it was just over $7 trillion, or $7,000,000,000,000 for those who like zeroes. In scientific notation, it’s $7.0 * 10^12. Currently, the debt stands at $12 trillion or so, and the debt limit now lets it go to $14 trillion.

$14 trillion is 100% of GDP, and taking our debt beyond that number puts us in danger of going over a tipping point.

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Freezing Discretionary Spending

Obama is going to propose a freeze on discretionary spending to help rein in the budget. His proposals will affect roughly 3% of the budget. They’ll have no effect on non-discretionary spending, which includes programs like welfare, social security, veteran benefits, and payment of interest on the national debt. All of those have to be paid all the time, every time, according to federal law.

So what are the chances those spending cuts will be made in an election year? Slim to none. Times are hard and Congressmen want discretionary spending in their districts, even if it’s useless “pork barrel” spending on highways that go nowhere or condiment research projects (I’ve seen the guy that gets paid $70,000 a year to measure ketchup speed. Nice work if you can get it…). Congressmen may want to talk about cutting someone else’s program, but only to their constituents. In reality, they’re more likely to secure votes for their programs by promising to vote for everyone else’s program. That’s what we call logrolling.

It’s also what we call political economy. When a politician wants to get re-elected, he behaves in a way that’s often inconsistent with the way we want a politician to behave: in ourbest interests. Given that the way out of this current economic mess is to either experience pain now or to postpone the pain and feel a whole lot more later on, I bet we’ll see a lot of postponing and a lot of incumbents getting re-elected.

That’s a lot of concepts there… amazing how things happen to help the AP Government student understand the coursework…

Which Way Will the Economy Go in 2010?

Part of this is to help keep my Macroeconomics students sharp in the run-up to the AP exam in May, and part of this is to help me figure out how the economy’s going to turn out this year.

We start right now with current demand well short of full-employment output. That means we’re in a recession. If you want to draw an AD/AS graph, make that Aggregate Demand (AD) line well to the left of the Long-Run Aggregate Supply (LRAS) line. For the uninitiated, the LRAS line shows where the economy needs to be for unemployment to be around 3-5%. We’re at 10% unemployment, so things are grim right now, but they could get better.

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Trade and GDP

I’ve been explaining to my Economics students that imports are normally deducted from GDP, as they are actually cases of our nation spending money in another country to increase their total output. Now I read that the US Government has not been deducting all imports in its calculations.

All that offshoring work? It’s not deducted from the price of the final good, which could be a computer repair bill, an x-ray evaluation, or a tax preparation. That means the productivity of another nation has been snuck into our own data. Goods that have been assembled here from parts produced in other countries also haven’t had the prices of those imports deducted, so that’s another fudge that makes our GDP and productivity look much larger than it actually is.

This means that increases in GDP may be illusory: they could just be indicative of more offshoring and importing rather than actual increases in productivity at home. The next time a reporter has a gee-whiz story about GDP increasing, take some time to see where those numbers came from.

A Marxist View of the Recent Mess

Capitalism Hits the Fan Marxist economists haven’t died and become part of the fossil record. They’ve adapted and continue to raise critical questions of both Keynesian and Classical economic viewpoints. I recently saw one such viewpoint on LinkTV and felt moved to comment on it.

The lecture in question is called “Capitalism Hits the Fan.” In it, Economics professor Richard Wolff examines what he considers the roots of the current economic mess. He points at how regulations designed to rein in businesses quickly became rules for those businesses to circumvent, get exceptions to, and then eventually abolish. This is true. The Chinese philosopher Zhuang Zi observed as much over 2000 years ago: if rats can learn to avoid traps in the kitchen, how much more so can scoundrels learn to avoid the snares set by the law?

When those regulations went away, corporate profits soared while wages stayed flat. For the last 30 years, wages stayed the same for workers across America as their productivity soared. That explains why the profits also soared. Corporations took those huge profits and then used them to underwrite consumer credit cards. Massive credit spending made up for the lack of wage increases.

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Unemployment at 10%: Yay?

If you read the whole Bureau of Labor Statistics report, this change to 10% is no cause for celebration. Unemployment stretches are getting longer: the number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more has gone up to 38% of all unemployed, for instance. The number of discouraged workers also increased. Discouraged workers are not counted as unemployed because they’re not in the labor force. They still don’t have jobs and they still face all the terrors of unemployment, they’re just not counted as unemployed because they’re not actively looking for work.

So, yes, unemployment went down. But, no, the number of people with jobs did not increase. My condolences to the jobless. It’s not your fault.

PBS Frontline: The Card Game

Credit Card Defaults Required viewing for all Americans. That’s what I’m calling this. You need to watch it, especially if you’re in my class.

Basically, our financial literacy as Americans is dictated by what the banking industry writes, and if we don’t read up on it, we’re financial illiterates and we’ll be taken for a ride. They’ve got the senate in their pocket – and I love how all the senators protest that they’re not influenced by lobbyist money, but they never, ever vote for meaningful reform. They can vote for reform, but it’s really a few concessions they are willing to make as they scramble to rework the system.

The unregulated free market is a nice way of describing a criminal free-for-all. The banks set the traps and we fall into them, one by one. Yes, regulations stifle growth and innovation, but they also keep people from being bled white by the cheats that flock towards unregulated free markets. I’m sick and tired of cheerleaders for the rich and powerful trying to keep the system as it is. We are in a trap, and the only way out is to change the system so these things can’t deprive us of our liberty.

Simply saying “nobody forced them to get into debt” is garbage. Trickery was in play, and the banks are the perpetrators of that trickery. We, the people, need protection.

The Dubai Default

Dubai Montage While Americans ate turkey and watched football, Dubai asked to postpone paying off nearly $60 billion in debt. That’s fancy talk for “Dubai defaulted.” World markets went low on that news, to say the least: it’s the biggest national debt default since Argentina went through hell in 2001.

These guys plowed in tons of borrowed money into vast construction projects so they’d have the biggest this and the hugest that ever built – and now they’re looking to possibly tip the scales and create the largest global financial cataclysm since, well, last year. While the request was for $59 billion, there’s another $20-$30 billion sloshing around that they need to aggressively refinance. The banks that lent the money are in shaky territory: if Dubai doesn’t come across, they could wind up getting paid pennies on the dollar for their loans and be wiped out. That, in turn, would do damage to the world economy and so on and so on.

So is Dubai too big to fail? Or is it too big to save? Because it’s possible to be both, with the latter taking precedence over the former. Abu Dhabi could cut a check and just buy all of Dubai, but then they’d be stuck with a lot of unfinished, unsustainable construction projects. The real message is that if Dubai’s jitters sent the markets spinning, the world as a whole may not be recovering as smartly as our governments are saying it is.