Iran may be the unlucky recipient of a US attack in 2012. This would come right around the run-up to the election, so as to present the most patriotic side of things. The Congress is likely to be deadlocked after the mid-terms, so Obama’s not likely to get a domestic victory to base his re-election hopes on. In foreign policy, Afghanistan and Iraq don’t offer opportunities, Palestine is usually a negotiating hole, and China and Russia can bite back. Iran is weak and “could have a nuclear weapon.”

Read the linked article and discuss. But that’s my call: if Obama’s popularity numbers aren’t good enough for re-election in 2012, look for them to surge when he reluctantly has to start bombing Iran.