Author Archives: deanwebb

Horserace Analysis

Yesterday, I said that Virginia and Florida would go for Romney. I got the other 48. Nate Silver of the New York Times called 49 out of 50 states, so I’m almost as accurate as he is. Karl Rove, on the other hand… he revealed himself to be a partisan blowhard even when he was pretending to be a non-partisan blowhard. So much for whatever credibility he had after calling 49 of 50 states in 2008.

OK, so why did the GOP lose Senate and Presidential elections? I can identify three big reasons. GOP guys can win local races. Statewide races and national races are where they run into trouble. The biggest problem for the GOP is that a hard stance on pro-life will not win the presidency or a statewide race with this USA. The hard stance – no abortion in the case of rape or incest – will lead to a rape comment trap, and that’s their biggest gotcha. One GOP hardliner’s comments will stick to the other candidates and sink them. If the pro-life party line allowed for exceptions to the rule of no abortion to include cases of rape and incest, then GOP candidates would do better. Until then, they are going to almost ensure that women in general will mobilize to vote for a Democrat.

Second problem: immigration. The GOP has not woken up to the fact that the anchor babies of the wave of immigration in the 80s are voters today. These children of illegal immigrants are themselves legal citizens – citizens with some closely-held views on immigration. The fact that strong opponents of immigration find a welcoming home in the GOP is not lost on minorities. When GOP candidates talk about anti-immigration measures, that cuts close to the hearts of those anchor baby voters. They would vote against the GOP out of fear of what would happen if the nation’s government turned more openly hostile to immigrants.

Third problem: free speech. Not for the opponents, for the candidates. The GOP did a fantastic job of inserting shoes between their bicuspids in this election cycle. Aiken and Mourdock had their rape comments. For Romney, it was the comical combination of Big Birg, binders, and bayonets. These guys need some massive coaching on how to answer questions without coming across as medieval popes, insane hockey moms, or pompous windbags. I have worked with pompous windbags as an AcDec coach, and there are ways to help those guys not come across as such.

Both sides did a potent job of pandering and negative campaigning. The Democrats simply did a better job of not angering women, terrifying minorities, and sounding like arrogant ideologues. It doesn’t matter what a candidate is, deep down inside. It’s the appearance that counts, and the Democrats’ candidates made for better appearances.

Paralysis and Shock

When nations arrive at a state of paralysis, they do not recover their former resilience. Instead, they endure shocks that produce undemocratic or hyperdemocratic results.

China, Russia, and Cambodia went Communist. They lacked a developed industrial base, so peasant uprisings behind Communist vanguards succeeded in taking over the apparatus of state. Russia later endured a second paralysis after its Communist period and went Fascist under Putin – after fracturing into 15 nations. China is enduring paralysis right now, but I cannot determine if it will go Fascist or break apart into smaller units. I should note that Communism is not an option for a developed nation. The big threat to developed democratic and liberal ideals are national dissolutions or fascist movements. India has a decent shot at going Communist because of its massive rural population. China, too, could have a second Communist revolution. Russia won’t be going back to Communism: it’s too industrialized.

Mexico in 1910 went in a leftist direction, not entirely Communist. In the 1990s, paralysis gave Mexico a rightward shift that was incomplete: drug lords have now fractured the Mexican state.

Weimar Germany, postwar Italy, and 1930s Spain endured paralysis that produced fascist states.

Yugoslavia’s paralysis produced a fractured state, as did Czechoslovakia.

Iran’s paralysis under the Shah led to a fascist-religious state under the Ayatollahs. It is enduring another round of paralysis. Arab states emerging from recent revolutions are also leaning towards fascist-religious states after paralyzing secular fascism. Syria is fractured and Lebanon perennially fractures under the stress of paralysis.

Japan’s paralysis in the 1930s gave them militaristic fascism. They are also enduring another phase of paralysis.

European nations and the USA are also in paralysis, to one degree or another. Spain and Italy look set to fly apart: Greece is capable of anything. Other nations’ situations are developing.

So, whither the USA? Fascism or dissolution? I think the lessons of 1861-1865 are clear and that dissolution is not a viable scenario, except in the case of an extreme sequence of events. Fascism is already nascent, with interest groups exerting influence on both the major parties favorable towards a fascist setup. The Tea Party is a vanguard of American fascism – it truly is, even though not all Tea Party supporters are fascists – and the rest of the Republicans are impotent in opposing their influence. By turn, the radical elements in the GOP produce a more radicalized Democrat party, which compounds the paralysis of government.

That paralysis is ultimately to the benefit only of Fascist movements.

What Fiction Should Guide Us?

It’s simple: forget the Ayn Rand books. Her hateful, selfish, praise of the sociopath is not the inspiration we need. Turn instead to Charles Dickens and his “A Christmas Carol.” It’s a short work and focuses on the one character, Scrooge, so it’s easy to follow. Read it and try not to cry when Scrooge visits the Christmas dinner at the Cratchits. Dickens is not recommending rampant government-driven socialism: quite the contrary. He’s reminding us all that there is something greater than money and power. There is a reason we have a soul, a conscience, and a heart.

Those who shout the loudest that private charity should help the poor must be the most charitable themselves. It is a calamity of our day that, instead of the charitable institutions that Dickens admired in his day, America is famous for its billionaires that grind the faces of the poor.

Well, that doesn’t matter: even the poorest among us can be charitable. So let’s resolve to be more charitable: the Christmas season draws closer to us, and the spirit of the season beckons to us all.

Here’s the blueprint: A Christmas Carol. Read it and may it make you resolve to keep Christmas better than any man around!

The Right Words

Elder Shane N. Bowen said some things recently that cause no controversy, uproar, or outrage. In fact, quite the opposite: they are words of peace, joy, and strength. They are about the loss of a child, his own son, and the feelings that arise naturally out of love and the feelings that can come through remembering the purity of God’s love.

Not a day goes by that I don’t think of my own son that died before he turned three. I miss Jarom deeply and lovingly. I know I will see him again, and I know that what Elder Bowen says is true. If you want to know how I know what he says is true, you can read the talk delivered prior to his at the LDS Conference to learn more of the power and role of the Holy Ghost.

These words mean many, many things to me. They are a part of my spiritual bedrock, the foundation I wish to build upon. It’s not that I read these and suddenly knew a peace that had escaped me for many years. It’s that I read these and felt the peace I have felt for eleven years as I turn to God for comfort. With these things in mind, life is beautiful. Life is always beautiful.

Another Shame on the GOP

40 Republican senators blocked the passage of a bill that would have given job training benefits to veterans. The bill would have cost $1 billion over five years to help those that put their lives at risk for the benefit of Koch Industries, Bechtel, Halliburton, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and other great über-rich American corporations.

How can only 40 senators block a bill, when it takes 51 to vote it down? Easy. They threaten a filibuster. It takes 61 votes to halt a filibuster, and 100-40=60. The same Republicans that will go ape if one so much as points a finger at a defense cut decided a mere billion dollars over five years is too much for the people that have done their duty.

Disgusting. These Republicans are War Pigs, to borrow a line from Black Sabbath. Here are the names of the War Pigs, the men that worship the God of War, but desecrate the soldiers returning home:
Alexander (R-TN)
Ayotte (R-NH)
Barrasso (R-WY)
Blunt (R-MO)
Boozman (R-AR)
Burr (R-NC)
Chambliss (R-GA)
Coats (R-IN)
Coburn (R-OK)
Cochran (R-MS)
Corker (R-TN)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Enzi (R-WY)
Graham (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)
Hatch (R-UT)
Hoeven (R-ND)
Hutchison (R-TX)
Isakson (R-GA)
Johanns (R-NE)
Johnson (R-WI)
Kyl (R-AZ)
Lee (R-UT)
Lugar (R-IN)
McCain (R-AZ)
McConnell (R-KY)
Moran (R-KS)
Paul (R-KY)
Portman (R-OH)
Risch (R-ID)
Roberts (R-KS)
Rubio (R-FL)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL)
Thune (R-SD)
Toomey (R-PA)
Vitter (R-LA)
Wicker (R-MS)

Only two had to switch their vote for cloture, and the bill would have passed. Their protests that it would not have worked are asinine. The bill itself was revenue-neutral. The GOP Senate leadership ran away from reporters wanting answers about this. Cowards. Ungrateful, slimy, reprobate COWARDS. They can’t stand up to banks or major defense contractors, but it’s easy for them to crush a few little veterans, coming home from wars they voted for.

No wonder Colin Powell endorsed Obama. General Powell cares about the veterans.

And if any Republican wants to step up and try to defend his party’s stance on veterans, feel free to do so, but I’m going to revile you if you try and defend outright moral cowardice. You’ve got freedom of speech, and so do I. Don’t try and offer some bland qualification for the bill: that’s party spew, and you know it. The truth is simple: There is a Gang of Forty Thieves in the GOP senate caucus, and they’ve stolen from our soldiers. Shame on them and shame on those who stand with them and shame on those who buy their votes.

Special Witnesses of Christ

I remember seeing this video when it first came out. I am so glad it’s available again. While I can put it up here and say, “For those interested in what Mitt Romney believes, here’s a link…”, I really am posting the link because it’s what I believe and this is a message of joy and peace. Yes, it’s long, but there are also shorter chapters available (under titles such as “Special Witnesses of Christ, Part 4” and the like…) and these messages should not be missed. Maybe you might want to miss them, and maybe your day becomes all the better for hearing them. For me, they are greater than gold or silver.

Full video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srYKbh4ASuw

Chinese Chess

I play Chinese Chess. It is a game primarily of position. Western approaches to the game, in which players muster strength and keep track of pawns eliminated, fail in the face of bold sacrifices that may lose key pieces in order to gain an unconquerable position. It is a game of rapid movement and development, unlike its European cousin, where pieces create fortifications that must be assailed. In Chinese Chess, everything is in motion in a very un-Western-like way.

Which brings me to Iran… the USA/Israel axis wants to keep Iran from having a nuclear weapon, and have even hinted that a war may be needed to enforce that wish. While China would prefer to get its oil from Iran without trouble, it can withstand a war with Iran interrupting its energy supplies. China knows it’s going to experience a huge downturn in its economy in the near future. Why not take all its lumps at once? In exchange for that sacrifice, the USA becomes horribly entangled in Iran.

Ten years down the road, China would emerge from its second Cultural Revolution with its house restored to order – after considerable hardship and loss of lives – and the USA would be either wrecked on the rocks of the Middle East, or perilously close to such a fate.

What if the USA stays out of Iran? Well, ten years down the road, the USA may be in better financial and military shape, but China will have a nuclear-armed ally to secure the other side of the Central Asian petrochemical field. That, in turn, would necessitate an alliance with Russia to act as a counter to Chinese power. Should China have closer ties with Russia, then the USA would be looking at a period of decline until China and Russia have their eventual falling-out…

So, basically, Iran holds the USA in check. Either we have a war with it or ignore it, either option to China’s benefit.

The Handmaiden’s Candidates

First, there was that GOP guy in Missouri with his “legitimate rape” thinking. Now there’s a GOP guy in Indiana with “it’s something God intended.” One guy might – might – be an isolated incident. Two guys start to form a pattern.

Little quips about Big Bird, binders, and bayonets are par for the course in politics. Trying to find some way to justify rapes, no matter how finely worded those justifications may be, are beyond the pale. Here in North Texas, a state race is hinging on how one candidate rejected legislation that would increase prosecution against rapists. Guess what party he’s a member of? Like I said, a pattern.

This is not a time for GOP people to react with indignation that all Republicans are being tarred with the same brush. This is a time for the GOP to put its house in order. Romney still presents a sane view on rape: he’s against it and he does not oppose abortion in the case of rape. He won’t win Democrat votes with that stance, but at least he won’t turn the USA into a bizarre theocracy with his views.

I find it ironic that the people most likely to fling poo at Romney for being “part of a cult” are also those most likely to themselves be part of a misogynistic cult that has hijacked a good part of the Republican party. There are crazed demagogues in the Democrat party, but at least they hold the view that women are equal to men as far as rights and liberties go. The GOP used to be a party that tried to claim that it was tough on crime. A fine stance, in my view.

But being tough on crime except rape? Unacceptable to me and any other sane person, in or out of the GOP.

Some Thoughts About World Cuisines…

When I travel, I don’t feel comfortable spending a large amount of money on meals. I love eating good things, but, to me, the price of the meal is part of the presentation and enjoyment of the dinner. That means I seek out great flavors at low costs. If there’s a $3000-per-gram ingredient that’s out of this world, I’ll never know about it except in legend.

I’ve been to places that offered very little in the way of affordable flavor and I’ve been to places where the locals put out impressive spreads. Not every culture or region shares the same attitude about food. That’s why, for example, Mexico’s cuisine is a UNESCO “intangible cultural heritage of humanity” and Russian cuisine isn’t. It’s not that Russian food is bad or objectionable in any way: it’s that Russians don’t have the same approach to eating that Mexicans do.

And before any Russians out there start plotting my demise for dismissing their national palate, let me defend my view of things. I consider Russian art and music to have few equals in the world. The Russian armies’ feats in World War Two were matchless. The Russian spirit is tough, indomitable, and forged in iron. The region simply hasn’t been blessed with a cornucopia of ingredients, that’s all. It’s cold there, so the growing season is short. That makes food more scarce than in tropical regions. The Russians also never developed a taste for spices, so their cuisine has more to do with subtle, muted flavors and interesting textures. And while I can’t get very excited about my next blini, I’m positively mad about Russian chocolates. If I was to write a book about chocolate, I’d be discussing instead how Chinese chocolate doesn’t stack up to the Mexican stuff and be saving the Russians for special praise later on.

You know what… one day, I’ll write about great chocolates of the world. Russia gets a big mention in that, guaranteed.
Right now, though, it’s about the food.

I’ve got a theory about the great cuisines of the world. While every region has a dish or two that can be pretty amazing, for a cuisine to truly stand out, it needs a large range of dishes that, time and again, in the hands of different preparers, cannot fail to deliver enjoyment. When I think of the differences between Mexican food and Russian food, I have to take into account the geography. I mentioned the cold and short growing season in Russia. Now consider the year-round bounty of Mexico. Add to that the fact that a huge range of fruits and vegetables will flourish in the warmth of Mexico that are simply impossible to grow in places where it freezes – like Russia. Face it, Russia is not known for its mangoes, pineapples, or papayas. If someone tried to sell you a crate of Russian bananas, you would greet the offer with disbelief.

Those fruits are exotic in colder places, but are common enough in warmer climates to be ground, pulped, and prepared in bulk sufficient to make them available as ingredients in everyday dishes. The same goes for spices. Warm places grow ’em like nobody’s business: they use ’em the same way. Colder places place such a premium on them that they will use a “th” where their warmer cousins toss in an apostrophe. Historically, the spices were harder to get to the colder places, so the people there either did without them or used them sparingly. Many is the time that I’ve looked at my pepper grinder, loaded with black peppercorns, and fantasized about traveling back in time to Europe to sell those very peppercorns for a massive fortune… and then use that fortune to sail somewhere warm, where I could enjoy food with big, bold flavors for the rest of my temporally-shifted life.

The other factor in these warmer places that makes their cooking something special has to be the warmness itself. Look, where it’s cold, there’s always an excuse to fire up the oven to keep the house warm. Want to warm up a pot of oats? Sure! No problem! You get the wood and I’ll rattle those pots and pans!

Try the same scenario where it’s sweltering. Oats? Seriously? You want oats? In this heat? Just oats? If those guys are going to actually cook something and make this place any hotter, it better be good. So how about instead of a bucket of warm oats, what say we whip up some lasagna? Or Szechuan chicken? Or tacos al pastor? Maybe some chicken tikka masala? Falafel, perhaps?

Right now, I’m thinking you’re drooling a bit more than when I discussed the boiled grains. That’s a sign of a great cuisine. Those places had plenty of stuff to eat, with an embarrassment of varietal riches, but it was so blasted hot in those places that when they made something to eat, it had to be amazing, or it simply wasn’t worth the rise in temperature. Those are the crucibles from which the great cuisines of the world emerged.